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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

A Common Fallacy In Global Warming Arguments

Our post today is provided by Terry Oldberg, M.S.E., M.S.E.E., P.E. Engineer-Scientist, Citizen of the U.S. That's a lot of letters, Terry! Oldberg joined our Spot the Fallacy Contest, which…
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Posted inStatistics

EPA’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan

The EPA has asked for my advice.1 They will not listen to, or harken, or act on this advice, but asking for it gives them a sense that they have…
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Posted inStatistics

Lightning May Cause Headaches, Moon May Cause Domestic Intranquility

I have discovered a statistically significant correlation between phases of the moon and domestic harmony. Every day for several months I filled out the Domestic Harmony Inventory (DHI), a scientifically…
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Posted inStatistics

A Citizen’s Guide to Global Warming Evidence

Was it only me? I thought Chicken Little dead. After all, when was the last time we heard competent authority shouting "Only the government can stop the sky from falling!"?…
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Posted inStatistics

Anthropogenic Forcing Signals Not Significant? New Polynomial Cointegration Test Paper

I have been asked by a number of people to comment on a new paper that purportedly shows that "statistical tests for global warming fails to find statistically significantly anthropogenic…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Predictions 2013—Register Yours Today!

Time for our annual guessing game about what's to come for 2013. The predictions we made for 2012 will be posted and analyzed tomorrow. We have one week to enter…
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Posted inStatistics

Do Heat Waves Cause Birth Defects?

What would you name a paper which purports to discover that heat waves stress pregnant women and thus cause birth defects but which never once measures the actual exposure of…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Data Is The Data, Not The Model: With Climatology Time Series Example

How not to plot The following plot was sent to me yesterday for comment. I cannot disclose the sender, nor the nature of the data, but neither of these are…
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  1. C- Marie on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I understood much of the logic of this. Thank you, Matt! God bless, C- Marie

  2. shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…

  3. Rudolph Harrier on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    It's an interesting thought experiment. However, we will never have a practical implementation of the test because it would be…

  4. Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    hudbwu, You could be right.

  5. hudbwu on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    Caution: it may be that intelligence can not be confirmed by any behavioral test. For example, free will can not…

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