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Latest Articles
Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI
February 9, 2026
Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well
February 4, 2026
Impossible LSAT Statistics Question
February 3, 2026
How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)
February 2, 2026
Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series
January 29, 2026
Who Still Listens To AM Radio?
January 28, 2026
Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins
January 27, 2026
What Science Says About Making Medication Mandatory
January 26, 2026
What A Winter
January 20, 2026
FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability
January 19, 2026
Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!
January 15, 2026
AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)
January 14, 2026
Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting
January 13, 2026
Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money
January 12, 2026
Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series
January 8, 2026
The Consent Fallacy
January 7, 2026
On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs
January 6, 2026
Register Your Predictions For 2026!
January 5, 2026
Happy New Year!
January 1, 2026
How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?
December 31, 2025
Why The Drake Equation Fails
December 30, 2025
Posted inStatistics

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Posted by By Briggs February 9, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Posted by By Briggs February 4, 2026
Continue Reading
Covid & The Cathedral — Guest Post by John Q Public
Posted inCulture

Covid & The Cathedral — Guest Post by John Q Public

As the reader may know from my last guest appearance, I am entirely on the side of the COVID skeptics. I have never believed any aspect of the response to…
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The Massively Stupid Idea Of Weekly Testing Of The Unvaxxed — Coronadoom Update CXIII
Posted inStatistics

The Massively Stupid Idea Of Weekly Testing Of The Unvaxxed — Coronadoom Update CXIII

Well, what more can we say that we haven't, and dozens of times? Although there is, here and there, some hope the panic is waning, female Safety Firsters, effeminates and…
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How Did We Do On Our 2021 Predictions?
Posted inStatistics

How Did We Do On Our 2021 Predictions?

How'd we do? Put it this way: none of us would have won any awards. Here is the list so you can follow along (perhaps open in a new window).…
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Register Your Predictions for 2022!
Posted inCulture Fun

Register Your Predictions for 2022!

My Dear Friends, and, yes, Enemies, Happy New Year. As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at…
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Researchers Who Built Model To Say Vex Saved A Million Lives Announce Vex Saved A Million Lives
Posted inStatistics

Researchers Who Built Model To Say Vex Saved A Million Lives Announce Vex Saved A Million Lives

This is a slow day, with most off the internet, as is right and proper. So I will leave us with this repetition: All models, good or bad, inexpert or…
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Propagandists Boast Of Finagling Wikipedia: Here’s How To Have Wikipedia Revenge
Posted inCulture

Propagandists Boast Of Finagling Wikipedia: Here’s How To Have Wikipedia Revenge

It is good to take pride in your work. It is good, too, to show enthusiasm. And when a job has been completed in an exemplary fashion, it is sometimes…
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The Great Typo Hunt: My Enemies Insert Errors Into Everything You Believe Is Wrong
Posted inFun

The Great Typo Hunt: My Enemies Insert Errors Into Everything You Believe Is Wrong

From Anon: I'm trying to read your book, "Everything You Believe is Wrong", but it's tough going. You need an editor! Case in point, in the section "Democracy is Discord"…
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We’d Never Be Where We Are Except For Technology — Coronadoom Update CXII
Posted inCulture Statistics

We’d Never Be Where We Are Except For Technology — Coronadoom Update CXII

Increased technology is responsible for the coronadoom bug, panic, and "solutions" tyranny. If our level of technology was less, there would have been no bug, there would have been no…
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  1. shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…

  2. Rudolph Harrier on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    It's an interesting thought experiment. However, we will never have a practical implementation of the test because it would be…

  3. Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    hudbwu, You could be right.

  4. hudbwu on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    Caution: it may be that intelligence can not be confirmed by any behavioral test. For example, free will can not…

  5. Lucy Tucker on How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)February 5, 2026

    I’m ready to give up the right to vote.

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