William M. Briggs

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…

SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Son Of God

Previous post. We begin with the metaphors, Son and Father. THAT THERE IS GENERATION, PATERNITY, AND SONSHIP IN THE DIVINITY 1 Let us take the beginning of our study from…

Culture

The Big Slide: A Short History of the Decline and Fall of the USA — Guest Post by Uncle Mike

The American Experiment peaked in the two decades following WWII and has been in decline ever since. Here's the story in a nutshell. When World War II ended, the USA…

Statistics

Lindell Comes Up Short In His Absolute Proof

Mike Lindell, like Time magazine, questioned 2020's election results. Lindell says the election was shifted from Trump to Biden, which he decried. Time used the brand new euphemism fortified to…

Statistics

Diversity Is Our Weakness: Families, Spies & Colleges Edition

Update I'm in Twitter jail again! HAHAHAHA. Supposed to be released 7 PM tonight, if I behave myself. HAHAHAHAHAHA! What our elders wisely called the clash of cultures has under…

Culture

The Military Purges And The Oligarchy

Let's hope no foreign power decides to attack us or any of our sworn friends (I use the term reluctantly) the next two months. The military will be too busy…

Statistics

Infections Drop! Experts Baffled! — Coronavirus Update LII

EXPERTOLOGY The Daily Mail headline is that "experts" were "baffled" that coronadoom "cases", by which they mean infections, fell by 50%, and that (in another headlines) they were "plummeting". One…

Culture

Is “We Told You So” A Good Post Title For The Election “Fortification” Admissions?

When the based warned you the election was shifted to Biden, many dismissed it as a conspiracy theory. "Conspiracy theory" is always meant to be taken to mean "not a…

Nym Coy on On Not ReadingMarch 13, 2026
Might I interest you in a book? It is called Mumbai Singularity, and it is a mythic cyberpunk detective thriller…
Uncle Mike on Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)March 12, 2026
The probability of significant "climate change" in equatorial Africa is very small because most climate change occurs at the poles.…
Idonotreadcomments on On Not ReadingMarch 12, 2026
First of all, you only need to visit a big chain bookstore to know that the fiction market is driven…
C-Marie on On Not ReadingMarch 12, 2026
Well, I do knpw that Malchi Martin and David McCullough were great authors.... The Final Conclave and John Adams, respectively.…
NLR on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026
People have a variety of different reading habits. So the best thing to accommodate that is to preserve a variety…

William M. Briggs

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

On Not Reading

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI

A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?

Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series

The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind

Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes

Faith Deposited: Why Godless Science Fails

Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity

Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky

The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell

Class 79: Time Series Example

The Importance Of Not Making Decisions

Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously

AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic

Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series

Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam Performance

Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

On Not Reading

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Son Of God

The Big Slide: A Short History of the Decline and Fall of the USA — Guest Post by Uncle Mike

Lindell Comes Up Short In His Absolute Proof

Diversity Is Our Weakness: Families, Spies & Colleges Edition

The Military Purges And The Oligarchy

Infections Drop! Experts Baffled! — Coronavirus Update LII

Is “We Told You So” A Good Post Title For The Election “Fortification” Admissions?

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification