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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 91: Try Not To Use the ROC Curve & AUC
June 11, 2026
Climate Change Increases Risk of Even Slower World Cup Games!
June 10, 2026
The Ultimate IQ Test: Guessing the Author’s Mind and Escaping the Infinity of Answers
June 8, 2026
Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?
June 4, 2026
No Model Will Save Us: Pope Leo, the Miserostat, and AI’s Woke Coders
June 3, 2026
How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?
June 1, 2026
Class 90: Simple (Optimal) Decisions
May 28, 2026
Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living Longer
May 27, 2026
Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You Wednesday
May 21, 2026
Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”
May 20, 2026
Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves
May 18, 2026
Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples
May 14, 2026
The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!
May 13, 2026
The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?
May 12, 2026
Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty
May 11, 2026
How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power
May 6, 2026
Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
May 4, 2026
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 91: Try Not To Use the ROC Curve & AUC

Posted by By Briggs June 11, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Climate Change Increases Risk of Even Slower World Cup Games!

Posted by By Briggs June 10, 2026
Continue Reading
The Week In Doom — Transanity Update Edition
Posted inCulture

The Week In Doom — Transanity Update Edition

Item LGBTQ education is now mandatory in N.J. schools For a high school history assignment on the Holocaust, Olivia Loesch chose the pink triangle, used by the Nazis to persecute…
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We Don’t Want Ideological Diversity
Posted inCulture

We Don’t Want Ideological Diversity

I realized after I wrote this that it could stand for my mandatory Diversity statement. We want Truth and Reality to be represented in academia. We certainly don't need racial…
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On Cause In Probability Models
Posted inStatistics

On Cause In Probability Models

Note This post originally ran 11 June 2019 under the title "When Cause Is Not A Cause -- Another Anti-P-Value Argument". The post itself is extracted and modified from this…
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New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty
Posted inStatistics

New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty

By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their…
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That Cofnas Paper On Research On Group Differences In Intelligence
Posted inStatistics

That Cofnas Paper On Research On Group Differences In Intelligence

Find by general acclaim the smartest man in the world. Call this man "Group A". Call everybody else "Group B". There will necessarily be a group difference in mean intelligence,…
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A German “Migrant” Explains Why Vigilantism Will Increase
Posted inCulture

A German “Migrant” Explains Why Vigilantism Will Increase

An old argument for a state police force is that justice is removed from family, clan, and tribe to what is seen as an impartial authority. This shift subdues, eliminates,…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: Laws Are Divinely Given To Man
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Laws Are Divinely Given To Man

Previous post. Very simple Chapter this week. Notice that we don't say here what the law is, merely that is exists. THAT LAWS ARE DIVINELY GIVEN TO MAN 1 It…
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The Week In Doom — Bad Science Edition
Posted inCulture

The Week In Doom — Bad Science Edition

Abbreviated doom this week since I'm on the road. Item Mathematicians divided over faculty hiring practices that require proof of efforts to promote diversity (Thanks to Kip Hansen for the…
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  1. John M on Climate Change Increases Risk of Even Slower World Cup Games!June 11, 2026

    The picture on the video link shows how boring the game is. There are so many people yawning and a…

  2. _Jim on How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain PowerJune 11, 2026

    re: "How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power" Having skimmed the above post, I realize my…

  3. _Jim on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 11, 2026

    re: "The only question is capacity to recognize guilt. If the perpetrator was allowed to vote in national elections, the…

  4. _Jim on The Ultimate IQ Test: Guessing the Author’s Mind and Escaping the Infinity of AnswersJune 10, 2026

    One gains a better understanding of the underpinnings of the grist (the extensions to the 'maths') behind QM (Quantum Mechanics)…

  5. _Jim on Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?June 10, 2026

    I echo Jean Lesperance's response ... overbooked to too many blogs these days!

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