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William M. Briggs

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Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
March 17, 2026
Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics
March 16, 2026
Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)
March 12, 2026
On Not Reading
March 11, 2026
The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI
March 10, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

Posted by By Briggs April 16, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Posted by By Briggs April 15, 2026
Continue Reading
On True And False Theories
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

On True And False Theories

What makes a theory true? Bad question, that. Conflates too easily why a theory is true with our knowledge whether a theory is true. Both are subjects of great interest,…
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Summary Against Modern Thought:  God And Natural Effects
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God And Natural Effects

Previous post. This week we learn God doesn't have to do all the work, as it were. HOW THE SAME EFFECT IS FROM GOD AND FROM A NATURAL AGENT 1…
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The Week In Doom — 16-Year-Olds Vote Edition
Posted inCulture

The Week In Doom — 16-Year-Olds Vote Edition

Item At least 49 people are killed and 48 injured in multiple Christchurch mosque massacres involving an Australian terrorist, 28, who live-streamed himself opening fire on worshippers - as a…
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Ignorant Children Throw Tantrum: Media Fawns
Posted inCulture

Ignorant Children Throw Tantrum: Media Fawns

If reports are accurate, ignorant children "in dozens of countries on every continent will be striking together for the first time." The tempestuous tots are terrified quantum loop gravity isn't…
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Dramatic Increase Of Men Pretending To Be Napoleon
Posted inCulture

Dramatic Increase Of Men Pretending To Be Napoleon

Was walking up First Avenue and I saw another one. Fourth one is as many weeks. This one was especially flamboyant, though. I started and stared. He must have seen…
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Orthodoxy’s War: Part III — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inCulture

Orthodoxy’s War: Part III — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Stepping Up How did we get from the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) being the new and improved Fifth Patriarchate, in loving communion with her four Patriarchal brethren in 1589, to…
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USA To Pass Catholic Nation-State Law
Posted inCulture

USA To Pass Catholic Nation-State Law

How's this grab you? The USA is not a state of all its citizens. According to the Nation-State Law which ought to be passed, the USA will be the nation-state…
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When We Abandon Statistical Significance, Non-Statisticians Will Resist The Strongest
Posted inStatistics

When We Abandon Statistical Significance, Non-Statisticians Will Resist The Strongest

Regular readers will know the arguments and evidence proving P-values should no longer be used for any reason. If you still doubt, which I doubt, read this paper. Every decision…
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  1. John Pate on Contest Winner Announced!April 17, 2026

    The Austrian Painter is too milquetoast for me. I'm holding out for Vlad the Impaler.

  2. John Pate on Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto WattApril 17, 2026

    What is this rambling word salad. Grok could do better. Anyway, ZionDon is just doing his bit for the Great…

  3. Norbert on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 17, 2026

    Certain statements in the blogpost are perhaps careless and may lead to non-Catholic thinking. For reference, the following is the…

  4. Alain Petit on Antichrist, by Saint Robert Bellarmine, ReviewedApril 16, 2026

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CNbmoVdirxw&pp=0gcJCdMKAYcqIYzv

  5. Klara Castagna on Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto WattApril 16, 2026

    Ianto, I luv ya man, I bought and read your book ‘The Barbarian Bible’ - everyone should buy it and…

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