William M. Briggs

New Paper! The Replacement For Hypothesis Testing

Here's a link to the PDF. Briggs, WM, HT Nguyen, D Trafimow, 2019. The Replacement for Hypothesis Testing. In Structural Changes and Their Econometric Modeling, Springer, V Kreinovich, S Sriboonchitta…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Eternity Lasts A Long Time

Previous post. You MUST review. It's been a few weeks since our break, and doubtless your memory is sketchy about where we are and how we got here. THAT THOSE…

Culture

The Week In Doom — Religion Of Man Triumphant Edition

Item They're tightening the vise. As predicted, they're coming for your money. As one tweet down in the thread says (my emphasis): '"EU needs #digital single market. #Regulation should be…

Culture Statistics

The Death of Christmas — Guest Post by Uncle Mike

Last December 19th President Trump ordered the withdrawal of 2,000 American troops from Syria. The New York Times called the action "abrupt and chaotic" and reported: The decision brought a…

Statistics

A Case Of Bad Statistics In An IQ-Intelligence Study

We're going to soon talk more about "IQ" and "intelligence". I'm working on a more in-depth article on the subject to carefully explicate the vast over-certainties I see on "both…

Fun

How’d We Do On Our 2018 Predictions?

How'd we do? Let me put it this way: the Magic 8 Ball is in no danger of losing its position as top soothsayer. We were game, but overall there…

Fun

Register Your Predictions For 2019!

As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year tomorrow. Rules: Number…

Statistics

The Probability Of Your Existence

A version of this column originally ran 7 July 2014. To the nearest order of magnitude, there have existed, including us, about 100 billion human beings. This proves what was…

Neil Jordan on Class 79: Time Series ExampleFebruary 20, 2026
Does the passage of time cause ice, or does ice cause the passage of time? Mystical statistical court of appeals…
Johnno on The Importance Of Not Making DecisionsFebruary 19, 2026
But Briggs... we pay people to make decisions on our behalf... Government exists, and it MUST do SOMETHING!!! What are…
Johnno on AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest PanicFebruary 19, 2026
BRIGGS YOU FOOL OF ARTIFICIALITY! Aye Eye exists for one reason and ONE REASON ONLY! To INCREASE Shareholder Value! If…
JH on The Importance Of Not Making DecisionsFebruary 19, 2026
Maybe you mean “knowledge” instead of “belief.” When my daughter was in ninth grade, I asked her about evidence for…
gareth on AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest PanicFebruary 19, 2026
Yes "AI" is just computer models. Better - in the sense of more competent in tasks than before. This does…

William M. Briggs

Class 79: Time Series Example

The Importance Of Not Making Decisions

Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously

AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic

Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series

Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam Performance

Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)

Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series

Who Still Listens To AM Radio?

Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins

What Science Says About Making Medication Mandatory

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!

AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)

Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting

Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money