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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
March 17, 2026
Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics
March 16, 2026
Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)
March 12, 2026
On Not Reading
March 11, 2026
The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI
March 10, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

Posted by By Briggs April 16, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Posted by By Briggs April 15, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God Has Free Will

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Here we…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

This Week In Doom: Death Education & Blind Science

This week, entries from readers (I'm woefully behind). Science Is Blind Blind on purpose. Elizabeth Murphy recalls a lecture "delivered at Memorial University in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador recently…
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Posted inStatistics

Stream: Scientists Claim Zapping Brains With Magnets Can Treat Belief In God

Apologies to all. I thought this was going to run on Thursday, so I'm a day behind. If you're one of the folks who asked about upcoming articles, these have…
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Posted inStatistics

Why Statistics Can’t Discover Cause, And Bad Priors

My mailbag is filling up. Today two questions from readers, both about statistics. Feel free to send yours in on any subject. Tomorrow is a doozy. Question 1 From reader…
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Posted inStatistics

On The Supposed Newly Discovered “Gay Genes.” Or, The Importance Of Model Skill

Great news! The press and activists are touting a study which claims to have discovered the genes that "make" somebody gay. So get your enwombed baby's DNA scanned and make…
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Posted inStatistics

Enjoy Coffee? You Could Be A Psychopath. Or, Time For A Two-Year Moratorium Of Questionnaire Science

The headline blared "Enjoy coffee or a gin and tonic? You could be a psychopath: People with dark personalities prefer bitter foods and drinks". And then the bullet points: *…
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Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God’s Will And Contingency

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Contingency is…
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Posted inCulture

This Week In Doom: SJW’s Openly Deploying F-Bombs

So a magazine which follows advertisers' leads on how to match sock color F-bombed that neurosurgeon fellow who happens to be running for president. GQ, which I'm not sure who…
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  1. John Pate on Contest Winner Announced!April 17, 2026

    The Austrian Painter is too milquetoast for me. I'm holding out for Vlad the Impaler.

  2. John Pate on Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto WattApril 17, 2026

    What is this rambling word salad. Grok could do better. Anyway, ZionDon is just doing his bit for the Great…

  3. Norbert on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 17, 2026

    Certain statements in the blogpost are perhaps careless and may lead to non-Catholic thinking. For reference, the following is the…

  4. Alain Petit on Antichrist, by Saint Robert Bellarmine, ReviewedApril 16, 2026

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CNbmoVdirxw&pp=0gcJCdMKAYcqIYzv

  5. Klara Castagna on Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto WattApril 16, 2026

    Ianto, I luv ya man, I bought and read your book ‘The Barbarian Bible’ - everyone should buy it and…

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