William M. Briggs

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part II (update)

Read Part I: Again, the text (up to this part) has been corrected and expanded. Recall our overarching---our only---goal. We want to know whether the sweet old lady "has the…

Philosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part I (updated)

Since the subject arose yesterday, and for other reasons which I'll explain later, I thought we should revisit this series, which ran a year ago. I have edited and expanded…

Statistics

Dawkins On The Double-Blind Experiment

The Edge every year asks top science celebrities a penetrating, yet fun, always fun, question. Last year's was "What scientific concept would improve everybody's cognitive toolkit?" One of the correspondent…

Philosophy Statistics

Statement Of Teaching Philosophy

Regular readers will know that I have been searching for (continuous) employment as a teacher. Most colleges and universities ask applicants to supply "a statement of teaching philosophy", while a…

Philosophy Statistics

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Background A paradox is a mistake in thinking; an artificial, human creation which usually arises because a conclusion which follows from a set of beloved premises is itself unloved. Twitter…

Culture Fun Statistics

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…

Fun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV

Regular readers will recognize DAV as a regular contributer whose humorous voice of reason has kept many conversations on target. Today he presents ideas to spur a discussion of causality,…

McChuck on The Various Solutions To Black Crime AnalyzedSeptember 13, 2025
@John - If you don't know already, you haven't been paying attention for, oh, your entire life. But you probably…
John Pate on The Various Solutions To Black Crime AnalyzedSeptember 13, 2025
I need a bit more of an explanation about "woke whites" - what exactly they are and what motivates them.…
cdquarles on The Various Solutions To Black Crime AnalyzedSeptember 12, 2025
Where I grew up, in the last days of Jim Crow, no-one really cared that much about skin color. It…
cdquarles on The False Expectation Of PermanenceSeptember 12, 2025
If the definition of an ice age, geologically speaking, is a large mass of perennially persistent ice over a substantial…
THVRSDAY LATE-EVENING EDITION - BIG PVLPIT on Use The Tools The Left Created Against ThemSeptember 11, 2025
[…] Nick Sorter on XFinis Disputatio – Ronald L. Jelinek, Ph.D., at Catholic World Report(NSFW) Use The Tools The Left…

William M. Briggs

Use The Tools The Left Created Against Them

The Various Solutions To Black Crime Analyzed

The False Expectation Of Permanence

Astonishing Climate Change Predictions!

Class 64: No Confidence (Interval) In Parameters

What Are The Chances 6 AfD Candidates Die Before An Election?

Funniest Thing To Happen In Science In Years

Pray For The Downfall, Ruin, Confusion & Conversion Of The Doctors & Experts Causing Transanity

Class 63: My Correlation Is Causation Because My P Is Wee

The Right & Wrong Way To Do (Electromagnetic) Science: Interview With Hans G. Schantz

World Ends In 25 years! Towns Become Slaughterhouses! Peter Thiel Disguises Self As Sheep!

Deniers Refusing To Die From Climate Change Heat Waves

Class 62: Die P-value, Die! Die! Die!

Research: Solar Activity Causes High Blood Pressure

The Key Role Of Probability & Chance In Science

On The Cult Of The Victim & Why We Must Reject It

Class 61: Does This Guy Have ESP? II

Funding Increases To Foster Even More Cheating In Science

Compulsory Moral Bioenhancement Should Be Covert Says Academic Who Says Ticks Should Be Genetically Modified To Stop You Eating Meat

Lying Increases Trust In Science, Says Academic

Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1

Use The Tools The Left Created Against Them

The Various Solutions To Black Crime Analyzed

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part II (update)

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part I (updated)

Dawkins On The Double-Blind Experiment

Statement Of Teaching Philosophy

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification