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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Stats Challenge Answered: Study Of PFAS & Vaccine Antibodies
Posted inStatistics

Stats Challenge Answered: Study Of PFAS & Vaccine Antibodies

I trust you have read the original post (Blog, Substack). If not, do so, because I won't repeat any of it here. However, even if you haven't, you might still…
Read More
What The Psychic Theory Of Sheep & Goats Tells Us About Our Most Cherished Belief
Posted inCulture Philosophy

What The Psychic Theory Of Sheep & Goats Tells Us About Our Most Cherished Belief

Here is a true story. See if it rings any bells. Not in the story itself, which you likely won't know. I mean see if it sounds like anything you…
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France’s Confusing New Law Criminalizing Criticizing The Science
Posted inCulture

France’s Confusing New Law Criminalizing Criticizing The Science

My knowledge of French law rivals that of Fifteenth Century Congolese poetry. So I know I am on risky ground commenting on a newly passed law that many are saying,…
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New Zealand Forced To Release New Vax Data: Here’s The Analysis
Posted inStatistics

New Zealand Forced To Release New Vax Data: Here’s The Analysis

There's been an update on the New Zealand vax data. The government ponied up some official numbers. Some are excited about this. Alas, like the previous leaked data, I don't…
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Statistical Challenge: Can You Rate How Good This Study Was?
Posted inStatistics

Statistical Challenge: Can You Rate How Good This Study Was?

I will lose many of you today. But for those up for an intellectual challenge, this post is for you. This will not be easy. Let's play a game. I'm…
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Academics Blame Lower Trust In Scientists On Everything But Bad Scientists
Posted inCulture

Academics Blame Lower Trust In Scientists On Everything But Bad Scientists

The second sentence of the abstract of a new paper about trust in scientists, which is generally high but in some places low, provides the very reason for distrust: "Public…
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David Deutsch Rediscovers The Worst Argument In The World
Posted inPhilosophy

David Deutsch Rediscovers The Worst Argument In The World

You can read the whole story at Jim Franklin's place of how the late and lamented David Stove held a contest for the Worst Argument In The World. In [Stove's]…
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Propaganda Science: Black Women Murdered More Often Than Whites, Implies “Racism” Is At Fault
Posted inStatistics

Propaganda Science: Black Women Murdered More Often Than Whites, Implies “Racism” Is At Fault

Here's the propaganda headline: "Black women six times more likely to be killed than white women: Report". "Doesn't seem like propaganda to me, Briggs. I'd bet that number is true."…
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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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