William M. Briggs

Experts: The Coronadoom Vax Only Worked If You Got It At Lunch

Nature headline: "Timing matters for COVID vaccine effectiveness: Younger and older people gained greater protection if they had their jabs in the middle of the day." Good joke: "Went from…

Culture

Why Do Experts Lie About Something They Call Carbon “Pollution”?

We continue our series of trying to understand the Expertocracy, our form of government, and its uses of propaganda to further the goals of our rulers. Lying is a common…

Culture

The Beginnings Of The Expertocracy (a.k.a. Managerial Society) Starts With Napoleon

The French Revolution is directly responsible for the creating the soil in which the managerial society grew. The Cult of Reason alone proves this. The initial flowering of the managerial…

Culture

What Magic Tells Us About Propaganda & The End Of The Coronadoom Panic

The coronadoom panic came to its ignominious official end last week. A panic created, embraced, exacerbated, and perpetuated by elites, rulers and Experts. Especially Experts. I was on long drive,…

Statistics

Science Is Self-Perpetuating, Not Self-Correcting: Sea Ice Case Study

Headline from 2014: "Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report". Here from NASA is a picture by year of the estimated minimum sea-ice extent, which occurs…

Culture

Bring Back Global Warming — Guest Post by Richard Law

'Rio de Janeiro is a city in South America. It is the capital of Brazil. It exports coffee and sugar. It has a tropical climate', so wrote the first form…

Culture

What New Laws Criminalizing “Hate Speech” Really Mean

Yesterday we investigated the I Have Ascended Beyond Fallacy, which is invoked when academic Experts, baffled their theories are not as loved by others as by themselves, try to explain…

Philosophy

The I Have Ascended Beyond Fallacy

There is a special kind of argument you hear only from academic Experts. Non-academic non-Experts never use it; or, if they do, I've not seen any example (beyond parroting AEs).…

hudbwu on On The Probability Of GodJuly 1, 2025
I don't think omnibenevolence is part of the definition of God. Not only because, as you stated, there is nothing…
hudbwu on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJuly 1, 2025
> It is a characteristic of the breed—on average: we speak in generalities here—that in any argument women do not…
Briggs on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025
Spetzer, All good points. I go into many of them later in the chapter.
spetzer86 on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025
If the receiver and sender independently wrote down the guess / card with no verbal communication, it might be better.…
JH on Class 56: The Best Model!June 29, 2025
How can you make predictions in the big data era without using a model? Trust your gut.

William M. Briggs

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women

On The Probability Of God

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence

What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?

Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Experts: The Coronadoom Vax Only Worked If You Got It At Lunch

Why Do Experts Lie About Something They Call Carbon “Pollution”?

The Beginnings Of The Expertocracy (a.k.a. Managerial Society) Starts With Napoleon

What Magic Tells Us About Propaganda & The End Of The Coronadoom Panic

Science Is Self-Perpetuating, Not Self-Correcting: Sea Ice Case Study

Bring Back Global Warming — Guest Post by Richard Law

What New Laws Criminalizing “Hate Speech” Really Mean

The I Have Ascended Beyond Fallacy

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification