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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
The Deadly Rise Of The Science Enforcers
Posted inCulture

The Deadly Rise Of The Science Enforcers

The woke must needs have enemies. If they do not have them, they will create them. Their identities---and the woke are all about identities which create for them "lived experiences",…
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Experts: Everybody In Europe Died From Breathing Toxic Air
Posted inStatistics

Experts: Everybody In Europe Died From Breathing Toxic Air

A toxin, as the redoubtable reader undoubtedly knows, is a poison. And a poison, says Mr Webster, is that which causes "morbid, noxious, or deadly effects". People who ingest or…
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All—As In All—Of The “Climate Change Made This Event More Likely” Claims Are False
Posted inStatistics

All—As In All—Of The “Climate Change Made This Event More Likely” Claims Are False

Here's a typical recent propaganda headline: "Climate change made Libya flooding 50 times more likely: Report." This is not so. Here's another recent one from PBS: "Climate change made global…
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The Closer To REALITY, The Closer To Reality
Posted inCulture Philosophy

The Closer To REALITY, The Closer To Reality

There are any number of proofs of this proposition: The closer to Reality, the closer to reality. Here's one, recalling first that there is always a +/- to all surveys,…
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Weeping & Gnashing Of Teeth From Our Paper Saying “Climate Change” Not A Big Deal
Posted inPodcast Statistics

Weeping & Gnashing Of Teeth From Our Paper Saying “Climate Change” Not A Big Deal

That peer-reviewed, and therefore indisputable, paper we wrote showing, as many have showed, that "climate change" is overblown has been getting a lot of publicity. Before we come to that,…
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Coin Flip Video Restored!
Posted inFun

Coin Flip Video Restored!

What a clusterfarg. Here is the video, in all it's glory. Link. https://youtu.be/8XX0iRAN--8 Sorry for the duplicate email/post.
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Curse Of The Enlightenment: All Of Its Axioms Are False, Yet We Believe Them All
Posted inCulture

Curse Of The Enlightenment: All Of Its Axioms Are False, Yet We Believe Them All

Why are things so bad? And why will they continue to grow worse? The Enlightenment. Also known---or, rather, as it should be known---as The Great Corruption. Things are bad because…
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The Probability Of A Head In A Coin Flip Is 1, Not 1/2
Posted inStatistics

The Probability Of A Head In A Coin Flip Is 1, Not 1/2

My dad and I built a coin flipping machine. Then made this video (you might have to click the link): LINK FIXED. Link, because the embedding is not working. https://youtu.be/8XX0iRAN--8…
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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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