William M. Briggs

Does Admitting Spengler’s End Of Science Mean We Have To Accept Ways Of Knowing?

Let's expand a point made in the post Blish & Spengler On The End Science. Both Blish, in his summary of Spengler, and Spengler himself, said that West Civilization (in…

Fun

The Cultural Event Of The Year! Or, What I Did On My Summer Vacation

No Homework Turned In? I see I mystified most of you last week with that series of technical articles showing how easy it is to generate The Science. Very few…

Statistics

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

Day five of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…

Statistics

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…

Class Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…

Statistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…

Statistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…

Statistics

Over-Certainty Is One Of The Main Causes Of Bad Science: Brain Volume & IQ Example

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Don't miss…

Mocheirge on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026
I asked an AI, and it had the same answer as me but with silly Bayes equations. Then out of…
Johnno on Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death PenaltyMay 12, 2026
We should make it a law that whenever a criminal is sentened to death, that the only method to delay…
Mocheirge on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026
Definitely pick the door that the Boomer just left. There are three Boomers, so the probability that the one you…
Cary D Cotterman on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026
I don't know or have the patience for the math, or whatever it takes, to do this right. I figure…
Brian (bulaoren) on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026
@Steve Do black lesbian females have a penchant for nubile white women? If so, who doesn't? Should nubile white women…

William M. Briggs

The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?

Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty

How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?

Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty

Does Admitting Spengler’s End Of Science Mean We Have To Accept Ways Of Knowing?

The Cultural Event Of The Year! Or, What I Did On My Summer Vacation

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Over-Certainty Is One Of The Main Causes Of Bad Science: Brain Volume & IQ Example

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification