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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
March 17, 2026
Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics
March 16, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Posted by By Briggs April 23, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

Posted by By Briggs April 22, 2026
Continue Reading
What The Law Of Large Numbers Really Means
Posted inStatistics

What The Law Of Large Numbers Really Means

JJ Couey, who hosts a podcast well known to some of you, and friend of the Broken Science Initiative, asked me about the so-called Law of Large Numbers. Jay wonders…
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Briggs’s Best Broken Science Blast
Posted inStatistics

Briggs’s Best Broken Science Blast

Here's my talk at the fourth Broken Science Initiative event in Aromas, California, from just over a week ago. (Direct link.) The content in the speech is different than in…
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The Regime Makes Its Move: Federal Power Pre-Fortified — Forever?
Posted inCulture

The Regime Makes Its Move: Federal Power Pre-Fortified — Forever?

TRUMP INDICTED OVER STEALING WHITE HOUSE OFFICE SUPPLIES. "He took a whole box of pens," said Merrick Garland. "This is clearly illegal. It is theft, and I expect all news…
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Experts’ Plans To Push European Citizens Into Poverty To Save The Planet — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp
Posted inCulture

Experts’ Plans To Push European Citizens Into Poverty To Save The Planet — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp

Our friend Jaap Hanekamp returns with an essay to remind us it is going to get worse. This essay, slightly modified, first appeared on his site. Experts insist on destroying…
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Insurance Isn’t Insurance & Why It’s All So Crazy
Posted inStatistics

Insurance Isn’t Insurance & Why It’s All So Crazy

We did this years ago, but it's time for a refresh for new readers. You make a bet with a bookie. You don't want X to happen, where "X" can…
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Disinterested Audits Of All Scientific Theories Must Be Mandatory & Routine
Posted inStatistics

Disinterested Audits Of All Scientific Theories Must Be Mandatory & Routine

This one picture proves why you must distrust every new boast from every scientist. Scientists' ideas must be assumed false until they are proven true by people other than themselves.…
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“AI Will Kill Us All!” Say People Programming AI To Kill Us All
Posted inStatistics

“AI Will Kill Us All!” Say People Programming AI To Kill Us All

My goodness, what a distinguished list of AI Scientists and "Notable Figures" who have signed the "Statement on AI Risk". Important professors of computer science from top universities. Men, and…
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How Do Scientists & Soothsayers Know When They’re Right? Report on Fourth Broken Science Initiative Event
Posted inStatistics

How Do Scientists & Soothsayers Know When They’re Right? Report on Fourth Broken Science Initiative Event

We had the fourth Broken Science Initiative event this past Saturday at the Castro Ranch in Aromas, California. Which is apparently where CrossFit got its start. Standing room only. Terrific…
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  1. John Pate on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 23, 2026

    Ovarian Logic has no relationship to, and is not amenable to, formal logic or considerations of causality and empirical observation.…

  2. C-Marie on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    Well, skin colour is given by God to each of us. And, Jesus Christ is the only Saviour. Let us…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    @Cary I'm not sure what a "Martian giant" is... Elon Musk? I tried Google but all I found was a…

  4. John M on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    Liberalism Is a Mental Disorder by Michael Savage, ISBN 1-59555-006-2

  5. Cary D Cotterman on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    You speak wisdom, Martian giant.

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