There is that which is, and that which we can know about what is. Both feed the other. Probability belongs to the second subject. If you want to know what…

Warning: I have not read all the papers on this subject. My experience is in these kinds of papers, which is to say, turning correlations into claims of causality. I…

Oh no! What are we to make of this dire prediction of plummeting global temperatures? Let's ask world-wide authority (self-awarded) William M Briggs, Statistician to the Stars! as he takes…

In the Class, which I know all readers are dutifully following, bless you, I often cite Tyler Vigen's Spurious Correlations site. It is a glorious (growing) compendium of ridiculous results…

The best model is no model! Display your data instead. We bring cause to models, we do not extract cause from models. Models do not say what happened: what happened…

Independence implies causality; irrelevance is consistent with logic. A reminder that there is no such thing as unconditional probability. WARNING for those reading the email version! The text below might…

I have admitted many times, grudgingly, beginning long ago, that computer science guys are brilliant at marketing. That adjective is a woeful understatement. Genius, though so overused to be almost…

Every probability and statistics class I've ever heard of starts with math applied to observations---with all notions of what probability is and what cause means brushed aside. By the time…