The best model is no model! Display your data instead. We bring cause to models, we do not extract cause from models. Models do not say what happened: what happened…

Independence implies causality; irrelevance is consistent with logic. A reminder that there is no such thing as unconditional probability. WARNING for those reading the email version! The text below might…

I have admitted many times, grudgingly, beginning long ago, that computer science guys are brilliant at marketing. That adjective is a woeful understatement. Genius, though so overused to be almost…

Every probability and statistics class I've ever heard of starts with math applied to observations---with all notions of what probability is and what cause means brushed aside. By the time…

This is it. We have reached our one true purpose: understanding cause. Cause is much richer than ordinarily thought in science. But it is everything. Today we begin one of…

This is on the philosophy (not mechanics) of the predictive limitations of so-called artificial intelligence models. AI is no different than other models in principle, being only statements which connect…

Jaynes's book (first part): https://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/ Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Link to all Classes. Jaynes's book (first part): Video https://videopress.com/v/sWKPQTAU?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true Links: YouTube Twitter…

Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Link to all Classes. Jaynes's book (first part): Video https://videopress.com/v/MZXSWnmV?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true Links: YouTube Twitter Rumble Bitchute (often a day or so behind, for…