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UNCERTAINTY & PROBABILITY THEORY: THE LOGIC OF SCIENCE Links to YouTube, Rumble, Bitchute, and Twitter inside each class. Jayne's Book (first part). Class 1: Logic teaser (blog, Substack). Class 2:…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
An Argument Against The Multiverse
The multiverse might be real. God might in His wisdom and love of completeness and true diversity and the joy of filling all possible potentials with actuality might have created…
Posted inClass Statistics
How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part IX Stan — Logistic & Beta Regression
Review! We're doing logistic and beta regression this time. These aren't far apart, because the observable for both lives between 0 and 1; for logistic it is 0 or 1;…
Posted inClass Statistics
Lovely Example of Statistics Gone Bad
The graph above (biggified version here) was touted by Simon Kuestenmacher (who posts many beautiful maps). He said "This plot shows the objects that were found to be 'the most…
Posted inBook review Statistics
Uncertainty: The Soul of Models, Probability & Statistics. Chapter Abstracts
This post originally appeared right before the Uncertainty did. Now that we're 1.5 years out, it's time for a re-post. Buy it now, but it today, and buy it again…
Posted inStatistics
Trend Models & The Inability To Discover Cause
The plot atop this post is one of an observable, the cause of which is known to be related to a variety of physical, chemical, biological, geographical, and even sociological…
Posted inStatistics
Chapter 10 of Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics FREE for New Subscribers!
Today a deal so unbelievable that it can't be believed! No, wait. In fact, the deal was so unbelievable that it couldn't be believed. This follows logically: that which is…
Posted inStatistics
Just What Is Signal And What Is Noise?
There are two senses of Signal and Noise (SN). The first is obvious: a signal, some known phenomenon, is corrupted by outside forces, where these caused corruptions are the noise.…