Search Results for “model” – Page 13

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Fun Statistics

Best Movie Oscar Prediction Via Statistical Modeling: Update, The Model Wins

Update I humbly accept your congratulations. Argo will win Oscar for Best Picture, according to our non-patented, statistically significant almost-mathematical computer model. The key reasons for its victory will be:…

Philosophy Statistics

The Data Is The Data, Not The Model: With Climatology Time Series Example

How not to plot The following plot was sent to me yesterday for comment. I cannot disclose the sender, nor the nature of the data, but neither of these are…

Culture Statistics

What Can We Learn From A Crude Model Of Sexually Transmitted Diseases?

It's Statistical Modeling Day, so let's look at one dealing with sexually transmitted diseases. Why this subject? Well, according to New York's CBS 2, "Study Shows Soaring STD Rates In…

Statistics

The Final Polls & Predictions: What’s The Difference Between Polls And Models?

There are two ways to forecast the election: polls and models. Polls are easy: go out and ask who will vote for whom, tally the results, and print 'em. As…

Statistics

Does Averaging Incorrect Data Give A Result That Is Less Incorrect? Climate Modeling

Another question from the statistics mailbag: Dear Matt: I recently got into a discussion with a CAGW "believer" and of course the discussion turned to global average temperature (whatever that…

Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus

This is a technical addendum to the main series. I would have skipped this, but Climategate 2.0 revealed many misapprehensions of verification statistics that I want to clear up, particularly…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…

C-Marie on Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You WednesdayMay 24, 2026
God bless you, dear Matt, and all yours, all the days, and thank you for your faithfulness to our Father,…
spaceranger on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026
Two things I can never figure out are UFO pictures and police body cam videos.
Dave Narby on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026
There's been some pretty clear ones lately, at least to the resolution of the camera used, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcEEXLOORLI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zkZ3x1T0QU This…
James on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026
The same logic applies to the phenomenon of "ball lightning". It sounds credible, but there are no photos of it…
Uncle Mike on Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You WednesdayMay 21, 2026
Please enjoy your well-earned respite. Warmth is indeed a boon and blessing -- it's in the eighties here today and…