Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…

This is extracted from this set of papers, which should be read in full. An ordinary regression model is written      mu = beta_0x_1 + ... + beta_0x_p, where mu…

Some have the idea that there should be a "weight of evidence" that is separate from probability, or in addition to it. Probability judgments are held more or less strongly,…

Here's a tweet (addressed to Judea Pearl), "If you could get rid of all the spurious non causal correlations in a machine-learning model, you would be left with only the…