Posted inStatistics
What Is a Model of a Model of a Model? “Climate Change”!
One of our main themes is Uncertainty. In short, there is not enough of it, especially in Science. Which is to say, there is a surfeit of certainty. We drown…
Posted inPhilosophy
The Great Grand Bluff Of Science
Everybody knows the story of the turtles. The earth is held up by four large elephants, some say, which stand on the shell of an enormous turtle. When asked what…
Posted inStatistics
The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves
Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…
Posted inStatistics
Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…
Posted inStatistics
The Reason Why Much Science Is Broken: Every Use Of P-Values Is A Logical Fallacy
I made this picture for my talk at the first ever public Broken Science event (videos coming soon): Everybody has heard the saying "correlation doesn't imply causation." Taken loosely, it…
Posted inPhilosophy
ChatGPT Only Says What It Was Told To Say
We covered this before, but there are indications our All Models chant is not effective, or is not believed. Here is another attempt at showing it is true. So, all…
Posted inStatistics
What Can You Replace P-Values & Hypothesis Testing With, Especially When Computing Sample Sizes?
Dr B asks a question about what to do about sample sizes and hypotheses after the scourge of p-values and null hypothesis significance testing are recognized for what they are.…
Posted inStatistics
The Only Argument Against P-Values You Will Ever Need
Some two and a half years ago I posted this article: "An Infinity of Null Hypotheses — Another Anti-P-Value Argument". The title is unfortunate; or, rather, the subtitle is. It…