On Monday, 5 January, we'll register new predictions. Don't put them here. I bring glad prognosticative tidings and am pleased to report we did slightly better this year than last.…

Most of us have seen the Drake equation, in one its many forms, which purports to put a number on how many alien civilizations have iPhones. There has been much…

Due to the length of tomorrow's and today's post, there will be no post Wednesday. Video at bottom. Word is out (I learned via, naturally, Steve Sailer) about a new…

Thanks to whoever sent the Dice (there was no note or name attached). They work! Some are recognizing testing is flawed, but they seek refuge in "effect sizes", which is…

If you're an academic, you might think the biggest mistake in science is failing to win the grant, and thus lose the power to calm the Savage Powers that demand…

This is the most in-depth, complicated Class yet. But it has everything. Every probability problem turns out to be just like asking Pr(Dice loaded|Evidence). I hope you stick by this…

I didn't believe it when I first heard the most perfect conspiracy theory. You won't either. Who would? But once I did hear, I searched, because that is what good…

Via Alexander Bogomolny: At 1 minute to midnight 10 apples fall into a sack. The same happens at half a minute to midnight, then at a quarter minute to midnight,…