Posted inStatistics
Curse of The MINIMAX!
Make a list of things that might happen. Label this list X_1, X_2, X_3, ..., X_p, where "p" is for possibility. Each of these X_i is a thing that can…
Posted inStatistics
Coronavirus Update VI — Calm Yourselves
All the good stuff, caveats, code, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, and Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus,…
Posted inStatistics
Bayes Theorem and Coronavirus: The Chance You Have It & The Chance You Die
I didn't have a chance to put this in yesterday's update, but I've been asked to do it. It's a classic in every 101 biostat textbook to do Bayes theorem…
THE CLASS
UNCERTAINTY & PROBABILITY THEORY: THE LOGIC OF SCIENCE Links to YouTube, Rumble, Bitchute, and Twitter inside each class. Jayne's Book (first part). Class 1: Logic teaser (blog, Substack). Class 2:…
Posted inClass Statistics
Observable-Based , Predictive, or Causal Statistics? Don’t Test! Don’t Estimate!
The term predictive statistics is used to describe a focus on observables, and not on any invisible model-based parameters as is found in estimation and null hypothesis significance testing. It…
Posted inStatistics
Cohort Increases In Sex With Same-Sex Partners
Today's post title is stolen from a paper by the same name "Cohort Increases In Sex With Same-Sex Partners: Do Trends Vary by Gender, Race, and Class?" in Gender &…
Posted inClass Statistics
Coronavirus Statistics: R Code Included! — Updated With Hack To Adjust For New Reporting Methods
Intro I thought it would be fun to turn the daily coronavirus predictions I've been making into statistics class, complete with code. There are two parts to this: (1) the…
Posted inCulture Philosophy
AI Is Coming For You!
The picture heading the post is of an AI machine carrying a small child to a paperclip factory. Why is it every time I read one of these evil-AI-destroys-the-world stories…