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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Two New Papers: Atmospheric Ammonia Modeling
Posted inStatistics

Two New Papers: Atmospheric Ammonia Modeling

Both of these are in review at "peer review" journals, because as we all know, peer review guarantees truth. Lot of people use what's known as the Ryden & McNeil…
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Researchers Say Thoughts & Prayers Are Harmful, Confirmed With Wee P-Values
Posted inStatistics

Researchers Say Thoughts & Prayers Are Harmful, Confirmed With Wee P-Values

I don't know if Wall Street has a Science fund. If they do, short it. Why? Take this peer-reviewed paper by the two ladies Linda Thunstrom and Shiri Noy in…
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The Moral Reason for Free Will — Guest Post by The Cranky Professor
Posted inPhilosophy

The Moral Reason for Free Will — Guest Post by The Cranky Professor

Do human persons have free will? I would say so. And I will expound on a fairly common yet powerful argument for the existence of free will, viz., that moral…
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Those-Who-Enjoy-Sodomy Attacked With Tanning Salons! Wee P-Values Confirm
Posted inStatistics

Those-Who-Enjoy-Sodomy Attacked With Tanning Salons! Wee P-Values Confirm

To prove that we are indeed doomed, and that we haven't even come close to hitting the bottom of the bottomless Pit Of Progress, this Newsweek headline: TANNING SALONS COULD…
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Draft Realist Catholic Climate Declaration: Please Share!
Posted inCulture

Draft Realist Catholic Climate Declaration: Please Share!

Here we are, friends. As promised, Draft 2 of the Realist Catholic Climate Declaration. Draft 1 is at the bottom, with a summary of critiques. The goal is to have…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: God Can Product Effects Without Proximate Causes
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God Can Product Effects Without Proximate Causes

Previous post. Miracles are possible. This chapter is only an introduction. In two weeks, we get to the meat of miracles. THAT GOD CAN WORK APART FROM THE ORDER IMPLANTED…
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The Week In Doom — Extreme Transphobia Edition
Posted inCulture

The Week In Doom — Extreme Transphobia Edition

Item https://twitter.com/rachelvmckinnon/status/1178619997704327168 A man preferring a woman over a man pretending to a woman, and vice versa, is now "transphobic". This ramping up of insanity was expected, at least among…
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ADL Lists 100%, Boots, Okay Sign, Bowl Cuts As “Hate” Symbols
Posted inCulture

ADL Lists 100%, Boots, Okay Sign, Bowl Cuts As “Hate” Symbols

The fund raising organization known as the Anti-Defamation League defamed basketball coaches the world over for their use of "100%", which is now an official "hate" symbol, and therefore "anti-Semitic".…
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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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