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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?
June 30, 2025
Class 56: The Best Model!
June 26, 2025
Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification
June 25, 2025
England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women
June 24, 2025
On The Probability Of God
June 23, 2025
Class 55: Models Vs Reality
June 19, 2025
AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output
June 18, 2025
The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition
June 17, 2025
The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example
June 16, 2025
Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters
June 12, 2025
Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores
June 11, 2025
AI & The Dilemma Of Technology
June 10, 2025
What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?
June 9, 2025
Class 53: Laplace Was Right!
June 5, 2025
Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out
June 4, 2025
Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best
June 3, 2025
Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting
June 2, 2025
Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters
May 29, 2025
IQ Is Not Intelligence
May 28, 2025
What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?
May 27, 2025
Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula
May 22, 2025
Posted inStatistics

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Posted by By Briggs June 30, 2025
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 56: The Best Model!

Posted by By Briggs June 26, 2025
Continue Reading
The Broken Science Initiative Podcast Has Commenced!
Posted inPodcast Statistics

The Broken Science Initiative Podcast Has Commenced!

Here's the main link. Most, and maybe even all, the platforms you use are linked. Or you can even listen at the site itself. The episodes I recorded are mostly…
Read More
Russia’s Patience, Russia’s Victory — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inCulture

Russia’s Patience, Russia’s Victory — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

The good news? The Empire is crumbling. The bad? It’s happening very slowly. Too slow for the impatient, that is. That group, of course, does not include Komrade Vlad. From…
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On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking
Posted inStatistics

On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking

Thucydides in The Peloponnesian War speaks of Athenian prisoners dying from "variation in the temperature" in the conditions they were kept. Athens itself suffered deadly droughts at least in the…
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The Worst Attempt To Defend Scientism I Ever Heard
Posted inPhilosophy

The Worst Attempt To Defend Scientism I Ever Heard

A public radio station hosts what they call "The Academic Minute", a name which signals you are in for sixty seconds of pain. This was so in a minute from…
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There Is No Such Thing As A Fair Coin
Posted inStatistics

There Is No Such Thing As A Fair Coin

Not only is there no such thing as a "fair" coin, there are no "fair" dice, either. Or "fair" anything. Which I shall prove to you. From Khan Academy, a…
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Why Universities Are Still Shrieking In Hersterical Fear & Mandating Student Vaccination
Posted inCulture

Why Universities Are Still Shrieking In Hersterical Fear & Mandating Student Vaccination

The title answers itself, does it not? The seed is there, I mean. A thoroughly masculine word, seed, and therefore inappropriate for today's discussion. Egg, then. The egg is there.…
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Congress Mandated Experts Design Plan To Block The Sun — And Kill Us All
Posted inStatistics

Congress Mandated Experts Design Plan To Block The Sun — And Kill Us All

The White House itself, the very bastion of Experts, issued the report "CONGRESSIONALLY MANDATED RESEARCH PLAN AND AN INITIAL RESEARCH GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK RELATED TO SOLAR RADIATION MODIFICATION" (pdf). Mandated. I…
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The Randomized In Randomized Controlled Trials Is Pure Superstition; Bad Magic
Posted inBook review Philosophy Statistics

The Randomized In Randomized Controlled Trials Is Pure Superstition; Bad Magic

Why You Need To Read This My dear readers, a complex subject today, presented in the guise of a book review. We are increasingly beset by lunatic psychotic sociopathic rulers…
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  1. hudbwu on On The Probability Of GodJuly 1, 2025

    I don't think omnibenevolence is part of the definition of God. Not only because, as you stated, there is nothing…

  2. hudbwu on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJuly 1, 2025

    > It is a characteristic of the breed—on average: we speak in generalities here—that in any argument women do not…

  3. Briggs on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025

    Spetzer, All good points. I go into many of them later in the chapter.

  4. spetzer86 on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025

    If the receiver and sender independently wrote down the guess / card with no verbal communication, it might be better.…

  5. JH on Class 56: The Best Model!June 29, 2025

    How can you make predictions in the big data era without using a model? Trust your gut.

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