William M. Briggs

The World’s Easiest Sociological Prediction Has Been Verified

We've discussed the Expansion Team Effect many times. I'm always embarrassed to do so because it's so simple it's a truism. What's weird about it is that, presented one way,…

Philosophy Statistics

How “The Science” Is Created By Not Understanding Belief & Decision Are Not Uncertainty & Probability

Stick with me on this not-so-easy subject, because I'm going to reveal a trick used to make you "Follow the Science!" Belief is an act. Uncertainty is a state. Decision…

Statistics

Expert Calls To Experts Yet Still Fail To See Why Not All Believe In “Climate Change”

I looked up one Lasse S. Stoetzer. Soy-faced economics degree holder. Sketchy beard. Keeps Funko-Pop-like toys on his bookshelf. He looks like a living meme. I also looked up a…

Philosophy Statistics

Our Base Metaphors & Analogies Used In Science Have Outlived Their Usefulness: Part I

Metaphors and analogies exhaust themselves. No matter how useful they are as guides to thought, pushed too far they can loosen our grip on Reality or lead to stagnation, and…

Book review

Science After Babel by David Berlinski Reviewed

David Berlinski is one of our best critics of the neo-Darwinian theory of evolution. He spends some time on this in his new book, which is a collection of pieces…

Culture

Canadian Health Minister Invents New Euphemism For Doctor Killings

Canada's Health Minister invented a new euphemism to describe doctors purposely killing their patients. That euphemism is relief. Brilliant! Yes, it's a riff on, or rip off, of Soylent Green.…

Statistics

Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability

I hope you'll forgive this minor repetition, my friends. But since the world has not yet converted to the truth, shouted by de Finetti and handful of others, that probability…

Statistics

Dickman Cries “Rape!”: On The Bizarre New Rape-Pregnancy Paper

You and I, dear reader, have looked at a lot of bad science over the years. Some science was bad because of the stank of woke, some because of fractured…

Brendan P O'Sullivan on Class 85: Proper Scores of Model GoodnessApril 9, 2026
Bill - An opportunity to help fellow Vets! Look at the following - regarding jet fuel exposure to vets -…
Steve on Proof!April 9, 2026
You don't need a publisher. It's just Godwin's Law in action. For whatever reason, that seals the deal for most…
gareth on Proof!April 9, 2026
Read it here, please. Which I did, and recommend others do too :-)
Cloudbuster on Justice Ketanji RoarsApril 8, 2026
One logical conclusion you could draw from this is that psychology isn't medicine and therapists and psychologists should not be…
spetzer86 on Justice Ketanji RoarsApril 8, 2026
Black people are reported as having a life expectancy of 75 years in the USA. That would give us another…

William M. Briggs

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?

The Great Effeminization of the Academy

The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly

Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

On Not Reading

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI

A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?

Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series

The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind

Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

The World’s Easiest Sociological Prediction Has Been Verified

How “The Science” Is Created By Not Understanding Belief & Decision Are Not Uncertainty & Probability

Expert Calls To Experts Yet Still Fail To See Why Not All Believe In “Climate Change”

Our Base Metaphors & Analogies Used In Science Have Outlived Their Usefulness: Part I

Science After Babel by David Berlinski Reviewed

Canadian Health Minister Invents New Euphemism For Doctor Killings

Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability

Dickman Cries “Rape!”: On The Bizarre New Rape-Pregnancy Paper

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification