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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

DANCES WITHOUT FEATHERS: I of III

In celebration of my having work, I present something that requires no thinking (on my part).   Part II Part III PDF DANCES WITHOUT FEATHERS Part I of III Kick...two,…
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Posted inStatistics

At ASA/ISM Joint Statistical Meetings

Link. Watch this space for stories. (Updates to comments on other posts will be slow.) Update: Tuesday night. This story, sent in by Jim D., is a must read. Statistical…
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Posted inCulture

The Sad Decline in Music: Benny Goodman vs. House Music

Part I: Cole Porter vs. The Beatles Part II: Billy Strayhorn vs. Drake I apologize for the slowness in the appearance of this third battle, but I have just been…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Models, theories, consistency, and truth

Ready? Put on your best straight face, recall that global temperatures have not increased for a decade, and that it's actually been getting cooler, then repeat with Brenda Ekwurzel, of…
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Posted inStatistics

Coin, queries, and screening

Work has caught up with me yet again, so here are three interesting stories to wile the time away. The probability of a coin flip Reader Ari Schwartz sent in…
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Posted inBook review

An internet success story: Shakedown by Ezra Levant

Shakedown: How Our Government is Undermining Democracy in the Name of Human Rights by Ezra Levant M&S Recommendation: Buy if you want to slip Levant a Loonie, or go to…
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Taking stock in the track: horse races and brokerages

This column was inspired by an interview I did with sports reporter Mark McGuire at the Albany Times Union. His story, in anticipation of the Saratoga races, can be found…
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Posted inCulture

The sad decline of music: Billy Strayhorn vs. Drake

Inarguably, hip hop (rap) is one of the leading pop music genres; at least, it is one of the loudest. I did not know which hip hop singer to choose…
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  1. tfc on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 1, 2026

    Wow. Americans say the Soviet Union was a huge success.

  2. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  3. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  4. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  5. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

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