William M. Briggs

Experts: Not Showing Ads Leads To 94,867 Fewer Cases Of Obesity In London

Repeat after me: all models only say what they are told to say. https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/1554464060732735488 An incredible result, says the mayor of London. Let's see how this incredible result came to…

Culture

“Leading” Economists Ask The Government To Spend More Money On The Rich

Today we discuss economic predictions: he who makes the best predictions has the best model. The predictions I make are based this tweet: https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1554568228550180869 We have been told that the…

Statistics

Top Scientists Plead For Someone To Calculate The Probability Of The End Of The World

Here's how the AP climate doom article starts: Experts are ignoring the worst possible climate change catastrophic scenarios, including collapse of society or the potential extinction of humans, however unlikely,…

Culture

The CDC List Of Official Truths: Magnetic Vaccines Example

You will, I hope, forgive me if I remind you that if there is Official mis- or disinformation, then there must necessarily be Official Truths. And if there exist Official…

Culture Statistics

The MIT Dahn Yoga Brain Respiration Experiment: How Belief In Failed Theories Persists

This article began as a series beginning 3 January 2009. I thought it well to revisit it as an example of how to investigate controversial Science. Clever readers will notice…

SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Necessity Of Penance

Previous post. The costs of mistakes must be covered. ON THE NECESSITY OF PENANCE AND OF ITS PARTS 1 From this, then, it is evident that if a man sins…

Culture

An Exception To American Exceptionalism — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

When Russia took back Crimea in 2014, Vladimir Putin evidently decided he could not avoid war. So, he made ready. He then publicly played possum for eight years. But in…

Statistics

How Does One Bring Oneself To Say “The Mortality Cost of Carbon”?

Many scientists have taken up sounding silly lately. On purpose. I don't here mean denying sex, where many have made perfect asses of themselves. I mean on "carbon". They say…

hudbwu on AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded OutputJuly 1, 2025
The wrinkle is in the (pseudo-)random number generator. In principle, the random number generator can be hijacked by a higher…
hudbwu on On The Probability Of GodJuly 1, 2025
I don't think omnibenevolence is part of the definition of God. Not only because, as you stated, there is nothing…
hudbwu on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJuly 1, 2025
> It is a characteristic of the breed—on average: we speak in generalities here—that in any argument women do not…
Briggs on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025
Spetzer, All good points. I go into many of them later in the chapter.
spetzer86 on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025
If the receiver and sender independently wrote down the guess / card with no verbal communication, it might be better.…

William M. Briggs

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women

On The Probability Of God

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence

What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?

Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Experts: Not Showing Ads Leads To 94,867 Fewer Cases Of Obesity In London

“Leading” Economists Ask The Government To Spend More Money On The Rich

Top Scientists Plead For Someone To Calculate The Probability Of The End Of The World

The CDC List Of Official Truths: Magnetic Vaccines Example

The MIT Dahn Yoga Brain Respiration Experiment: How Belief In Failed Theories Persists

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Necessity Of Penance

An Exception To American Exceptionalism — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

How Does One Bring Oneself To Say “The Mortality Cost of Carbon”?

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification