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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Leadership and Depth Control — Guest Post by James M Andrews
Posted inCulture

Leadership and Depth Control — Guest Post by James M Andrews

The commanding officer in any military unit is the number one factor in crew morale and success of the mission. He is more important than anything else by an order…
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Anon Wants To Give Up On RCIA: Too Many Women, Ignorant Priests, Seeks Advice
Posted inCulture

Anon Wants To Give Up On RCIA: Too Many Women, Ignorant Priests, Seeks Advice

A plea from Anon: The wife and I starting going through (in-person) RCIA classes at a local Roman Catholic parish when they started in the fall. I’m struggling with some…
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The Somebody Might Get Hurt Fallacy — Excerpt from Everything You Believe Is Wrong
Posted inBook review Culture

The Somebody Might Get Hurt Fallacy — Excerpt from Everything You Believe Is Wrong

Today, an excerpt of Chapter 9 from Everything You Believe Is Wrong. A refutation of the precautionary principle. See if you notice any similarities with what is happening our your…
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VAERS Shows J&J Vaxed Dying Much Earlier; Pfizer Likely Causing More Life Threatening Injuries In Young
Posted inStatistics

VAERS Shows J&J Vaxed Dying Much Earlier; Pfizer Likely Causing More Life Threatening Injuries In Young

The results are below. At top, I answer the silliest objections. OBJECTIONS "Briggs, you can't use VAERS for diagnosing Covid vax injury." That so? "It is so. VAERS is entirely…
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A Review Of The Covid Panic: Starting With Taleb’s January 2020 Frenzy & Ending In Our New Concentration Camps
Posted inCulture Statistics

A Review Of The Covid Panic: Starting With Taleb’s January 2020 Frenzy & Ending In Our New Concentration Camps

This is update CIX. Let's summarize, shall we? My first post on the panic was 27 January 2020: "Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To Coronavirus". Taleb almost at…
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Is The Coronadoom Narrative Crumbling?
Posted inStatistics

Is The Coronadoom Narrative Crumbling?

https://twitter.com/Kukicat7/status/1467235175184715780 "Nyah, nyah, nyah," he added. It always starts with one. This is the entirety of the post today, friends. My computer has gone to join the Great Bit in…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: The Incarnation Explained
Posted inSAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Incarnation Explained

Previous post. Finally, we get tot the meat of the Incarnation. HOW ONE SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE INCARNATION OF THE SON OF GOD 1 Now, to get at the solution of…
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What Australian Bishops Taught Me During The Pandemic — Guest Post by Oz Catholic
Posted inCulture

What Australian Bishops Taught Me During The Pandemic — Guest Post by Oz Catholic

It has been an incredible last two years as our illusions of stability and normality have been ripped away by a never ending stream of decrees and enforcements in an…
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  1. tfc on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 1, 2026

    Wow. Americans say the Soviet Union was a huge success.

  2. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  3. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  4. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  5. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

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