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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
March 17, 2026
Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics
March 16, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Posted by By Briggs April 23, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

Posted by By Briggs April 22, 2026
Continue Reading
Winnowing the COVID-19 Numbers — Guest Post by John Carver
Posted inStatistics

Winnowing the COVID-19 Numbers — Guest Post by John Carver

This idependent article shows how confusing counting coronavirus deaths are. Regular readers, no Doom tomorrow. This is going to be a preliminary investigation into the COVID-19 numbers being presented hourly…
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The Fifth Column & Coming War On Us — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inStatistics

The Fifth Column & Coming War On Us — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

I would like to preface this post with the following thought. Never depart for Moscow after the Ides of March. Unless you like Russian winters, of course. Bear with me…
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Coronavirus Radio Replay: And Notes On Welcoming Tyranny
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Radio Replay: And Notes On Welcoming Tyranny

I originally had this scheduled for Monday, but shifted to Wednesday because of the z-score mania. So I'm sure there can be many more things to add to this. Last…
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Coronavirus Update XII — Who Has The Right Numbers?
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update XII — Who Has The Right Numbers?

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
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Z-Scores Are Misleading & Create Panic: Or, How Not To Compare Pandemics
Posted inStatistics

Z-Scores Are Misleading & Create Panic: Or, How Not To Compare Pandemics

A number of people panicked to the point their minds have turned to quivering jelly, angry at my calmness, have been emailing and tweeting me the equivalent of "Oh yeah,…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: Love Your Neighbor (The People Near You)
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Love Your Neighbor (The People Near You)

Previous post. Puritanism is not a viable option. HOW MAN IS ORDERED BY THE LAW OF GOD IN REGARD TO HIS NEIGHBOR 1 From the things that we have said…
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An Egregious Statistical Horror Story — Reprint Of George Gilder Column
Posted inStatistics

An Egregious Statistical Horror Story — Reprint Of George Gilder Column

Used with permission from the original American Institute for Economic Research article. Regular readers: No Doom tomorrow. With the latest reports of plummeting death rates from all causes, this crisis…
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Comparing England & USA Covid & Historical Kill Rates (Sorry, England)
Posted inStatistics

Comparing England & USA Covid & Historical Kill Rates (Sorry, England)

Kissing Cousins Thanks to our new friend at In Proportion, a must-view site, we have daily deaths in England & Wales going back to 1993, and not just from 2013.…
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  1. John Pate on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 23, 2026

    Ovarian Logic has no relationship to, and is not amenable to, formal logic or considerations of causality and empirical observation.…

  2. C-Marie on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    Well, skin colour is given by God to each of us. And, Jesus Christ is the only Saviour. Let us…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    @Cary I'm not sure what a "Martian giant" is... Elon Musk? I tried Google but all I found was a…

  4. John M on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    Liberalism Is a Mental Disorder by Michael Savage, ISBN 1-59555-006-2

  5. Cary D Cotterman on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    You speak wisdom, Martian giant.

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