William M. Briggs

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…

Class Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…

Statistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…

Statistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…

Statistics

Over-Certainty Is One Of The Main Causes Of Bad Science: Brain Volume & IQ Example

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Don't miss…

Culture

People Enjoy The Expertocracy Filling The Gaps Left By Christianity’s Exit

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the Year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Regular readers…

Culture

Belief In “Spiritual Entities” Falls

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Here's a…

Podcast Statistics

National Association of Scholars: Is Science Broken? (Make a guess!)

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Last week…

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I arranged to stretch out my studies so that I would still be in Montreal for the 1976 Olympic games.…
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Your area didn't have UHF channels in 1976? I was just a boy, but I do remember afternoon cartoons on…
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I watched the count at a friend's house but at home Mom determined what was watched so...

William M. Briggs

Happy Birthday to US

Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)

Musk Doges Deaths: Researchers Say USAID Absence Kills Kills Kills!

The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David Stove

Marbles!

Class 92: Simple Optimal Decisions: PSA & Cancer Example

Math Is Epistemic Violence, Says Lady Academic

Truly Random Numbers Found?

Class 91: Try Not To Use the ROC Curve & AUC

Climate Change Increases Risk of Even Slower World Cup Games!

The Ultimate IQ Test: Guessing the Author’s Mind and Escaping the Infinity of Answers

Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?

No Model Will Save Us: Pope Leo, the Miserostat, and AI’s Woke Coders

How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?

Class 90: Simple (Optimal) Decisions

Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living Longer

Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You Wednesday

Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”

Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!

Happy Birthday to US

Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Over-Certainty Is One Of The Main Causes Of Bad Science: Brain Volume & IQ Example

People Enjoy The Expertocracy Filling The Gaps Left By Christianity’s Exit

Belief In “Spiritual Entities” Falls

National Association of Scholars: Is Science Broken? (Make a guess!)

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification