William M. Briggs

Computer Models Aren’t Science — Guest Post by Robert Kurland

This piece ran originally at The American Catholic, but Kurland graciously allowed us to re-run it here. It is a topic of deep interest for us. INTRODUCTION We keep reading…

Statistics

Local & Necessary Truths In Mathematical Proofs — And Probability

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp06oGD4m00 This video requires little math beyond what used to be taught in college. Its speaker is Terry Tao, who some say is the world's best living mathematician. Its (fun---truly)…

Culture

American Psychological Association: Every Institution In America Is Born From The Blood Of White Supremacist Ideology

Tell the truth: who would you trust more to treat your young son who was just taught at school that he could be a girl if he wanted to, and…

Statistics

Catholics Can Certainly Vote For Joe Biden

Lot of discussion out in the wilds and thickets of the interwebs about whether Catholics can vote for Joe "Who Am I?" Biden. Many say Catholics cannot vote for Biden,…

Statistics

The Price of Panic: How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic into a Catastrophe — Coronavirus Update XXXV

BECOME A SUPER-SPREADER! The book has finally arrived! Spread it far, and Spread it wide; Spread it till it hurts inside. Here's the PR: For the first time in history,…

Culture

Against Papal Encyclicals — Guest Post by Richard Greenhorn

The program with papal encyclicals is the same: Every few years the windows of the Vatican open and a forty-thousand word puff of smoke is exhaled. No one quite knows…

SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: How Faith Arises

Previous post. The knowledge that is faith and its objects must come from above. This isn't just faith in God, but in all unprovable matters in which there is absolute…

Philosophy Statistics

A Twist In A Solution To Newcomb’s Paradox

Let's take a break from the insanity and wade into cool waters to start the weekend. I'll take it that you've watched this video, which purports to give a solution…

John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026
I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…
Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
"their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…
Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…
gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026
Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…
Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

William M. Briggs

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Computer Models Aren’t Science — Guest Post by Robert Kurland

Local & Necessary Truths In Mathematical Proofs — And Probability

American Psychological Association: Every Institution In America Is Born From The Blood Of White Supremacist Ideology

Catholics Can Certainly Vote For Joe Biden

The Price of Panic: How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic into a Catastrophe — Coronavirus Update XXXV

Against Papal Encyclicals — Guest Post by Richard Greenhorn

Summary Against Modern Thought: How Faith Arises

A Twist In A Solution To Newcomb’s Paradox

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification