This is update CIX.
Let’s summarize, shall we?
My first post on the panic was 27 January 2020: “Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To Coronavirus“. Taleb almost at once became a shrinking, shrieking hersteric. Which I should have, but did not see, would have become the default position among Experts and rulers almost planetwide.
My second post was on 3 February 2020: “Unnecessary Panic Over Coronavirus?” Note the question mark, which left room for uncertainty, which at that time still existed. Health theater had already begun, and was laughable even then.
There was lots of uncertainty at the start. Would this bug stay in China, have just one wave, and so on. Many on our side bought the Chinese propaganda and panicked, and became just as hersterical as Taleb. This was exasperating. Our own Moldbug said, “In the next few months, you or someone you love will drown of a cough.” (He’s still at it, by the way.)
The word “exponential” was on everybody’s fingertips. Twitter became idiotic, with those on the right advocating panic, and those on the left screaming racism.
This was just silly, so, for fun and instruction only, since I did not guess the size of the resulting panic, I posted on 13 February 2020 some R code I had been using to post projections on Twitter. This became Update I. This used only the data available at the time, and common models on pandemics. Exponential forever was impossible, but you could hardly get anybody to understand that.
I had no sense the entire world would retreat toward effeminacy, and so didn’t take these models seriously. Except to smack those who kept screaming doom. Even as early as February people thought this is the end. There were “sober” predictions of billions-with-a-B dead.
By 3 March, and Update III, we had Blue Cheka warning about farts. That update also showed what happened seasonally with flu, including the season leading into the Hong Kong fly pandemic of 1968.
We pointed out that there were many other pandemics, like the Asian Flu in 1957 and the Hong Kong, and others, which were much deadlier, and with no panics. Back then, the CDC had these historical events on their web page, saying each killed “up to four million” globally. They’ve since removed the “up to”. You have to laugh.
By Update V, on 17 March, it became clear “Madness Has Arrived.” Funny that soon after this, the CDC stopped reporting flu numbers as they had been doing for years, and years, and years. Sayonara, influenza, our old friend, Covid has arrived.
By 23 March 2020, we knew this was going to be a full raging panic. Taleb was back saying “If You’re Not Panicking, You’re A Psychopath“. This isn’t poetic license. He said the very word, and meant it.
Enter Neil Ferguson, the serial fornicator of Reality. He predicted millions of dead in the USA by mid summer 2020. I screamed that this guy made a (solid, lucrative) career out of being wildly wrong. He predicted apocalypse after apocalypse. He was never right. Yet always believed.
It was then I discovered you can never be fired for being wrong in the right direction.
The insane, punishing, disease-spreading lockdowns began around April. In England, neighbor ratted out neighbor for going outside twice in one day. Bodies of old folks abandoned in nursing homes were discovered.
We knew (in that previous link) about another weak-livered fellow, too: “Cartoonist Scott Adams has embraced his inner little girl and now shouts that people who aren’t cowering in the dark are ‘sociopaths.'”
The WHO recommended against lockdowns in 2019, only to abruptly switch advice after Chinese money began to flow in spring of 2020. Curious, no? Anyway, it’s always been clear lockdowns do not stop respiratory disease, and even help spread them.
I warned us in May 2020 that “cases” were fake and gay and were being used to juice the panic. That hasn’t stopped. Nobody hears that. What they do hear is “case” and think “near death.” Even then, as now, the most common treatment is to send people home to wait it out.
Apologies for lockdowns, all model based, started then, too. Why, not only were lockdowns stopping deaths, they were making trillions of dollars for us all! Yes, the t-word was used. Remind me why any of you listen to economists. Oligarchs got insanely wealthy due to the lockdowns, anyway. Whereas real people were kicked repeatedly in the gonads: governments called people “non-essential”.
Because of economists, I began emphasizing (13 May 2020) all models only say what they are told to say. I can’t get anybody to hear that, either, alas.
I started posting regular and frequent reviews of papers—stretching back a full century, to the Spanish Flu—all of which show masks don’t work. I reviewed paper after paper which claim the contrary, all of which are entirely model based, and use things like spherical cows (mannequins hooked to breathing machines, etc.), all of which are useless. Masks are asinine, and do nothing but spread fear.
We published innumerable comparisons showing even near full mask compliance did nothing, and even caused harm.
Alas, nobody heard that either.
The wizened pervert troll Fauci (in September 2020) said our pandemic was not because he funded gain-of-lethality research, but because we angered Mother Nature. This man still shows his face in public.
I admit to another political error. I had thought that vaccines, when announced, would calm Experts and rulers, and therefore propagandists would signal it was okay not to panic. I was way off. Even as early as November 2020—even before the vaccine was generally available—Expert and rulers were saying they ought to be mandatory.
But in an effeminate, toxic femininity way. Vaccines wouldn’t be forced: you just couldn’t work or eat without one. A few readers here, mostly older and frightened themselves, thought this was a grand idea.
I predicted, in December 2020, that the efficacy statistics touted by vax manufacturers were far too high—simply because all pharmaceuticals boast and brag all the damned time. This turned out to be true.
And so it went.
I’ve been warning us for months now that as we went into fall and early winter, deaths would start to rise. As they always do. I said don’t panic. We are panicking.
I’ve pointed out, almost from day one, that we have had flu vaccines for decades upon decades, which have never eliminated flu (though it has now mysteriously “disappeared”), and because the coronadoom is a coronavirus, one of the causes of the common cold, there was no chance we would eliminate covid, which we would have to learn to live with.
In recent days, there has been an enormous increase in propaganda about heart attacks in the young, and how they are caused by cold and global warming, lockdown stress and freedom, marijuana and e-cigarette use, video games, and on an on. Every possible cause has been blamed, except, heaven forfend, the vax itself.
I showed, over and over again, kids are not at any serious risk of coroandoom, but they were from the vax. They have 10 times the risk of dying in a car crash. Yet nobody is advocating criminalizing kids in cars.
We have reached the concentration camp stage in Australia, a state Austria and Germany envy. They are going to, they say, arrest the unvaxxed and throw them into camps. You have to admire the German sense of historical continuity. In Canada, in New Brunswick, the unvaxxed can’t buy groceries. Well, if the unvaxxed starve to death, they at least won’t die of coroandoom.
Comrade de Blasio yesterday dictated that all should be vaxed, or die. Yet our great comrade only holds power for four more weeks. This is purely vice signaling on his part, a way to go out with one last Screw You.
The Courts, at least in the States, have pushed back some of the madness. Some countries, like Sweden and Florida (it should secede), maintained their sanity throughout the panic. Mention their name to Experts and the frightened and they will pretend not to have heard you.
We all saw the word fully transform. In Israel, “fully” now means the number 4. It will, if predictions are correct, only grow.
Experts cannot admit error; rulers adore their newfound powers. But there is more to it than that. The entire elite class does not want this to end. They love not going to the office, staying home, and masturbating on zoom calls. They love to wear masks. They love to signal their vice. Covid has been the greatest thing in their lives, and they will not give it up easily.
This brief review proves on solid thing: being right about Reality does not matter. Power does. I said it before, and I say it again: we have to replace their Experts with our Experts, their rulers with our rulers, their elite with our elite. There is no other solution.
BRIEF PREDICTIVE ADDENDUM: LIKELY BEST TO SKIP
Predictions? Well, there are those involving Reality, and those in politics. My track record in politics is dismal, though I’m solid on Reality.
For Reality, we have the Coronadoom Worry Index:
This is covid attributed deaths divided by “cases”. Recall both numbers are only proxies of Reality, and are exaggerations to various extent. Nevertheless, given this, everything we’ve seen, and the depressing (for propagandists) new that the Ominous Omicron isn’t killing anybody, I predict we’ll see a peak in January, followed by a series of diminishing smaller peaks.
Which is nothing more than what I have been predicting since the beginning, these two years ago, suitably tweaked.
For politics, well, Reality always does win in the end. It’s that the end can be a long time coming. I see forced vaccination diminishing in fervor, but not until the spring, when the sun works its annual miracle. Some Experts are softening. They’ll never admit to error, but they can lose their ardor.
But that may be wishcasting. The other possibility is that our evil rulers move to the next logical steps after concentration camps.
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