HUFFIN’, PUFFIN’ & BLUFFIN’ The blustery squid-stained panicked hersteric Nassim Nicholas Taleb—the man who called those who dared not run around screeching like teenage girls as he did at the start of […]

Apologies for the duplicate email! I hit the wrong button yesterday and published the incomplete update meant for today. All the good stuff, caveats, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, […]

All the good stuff, caveats, and explanations in linked in Update II, so go there first if you haven’t seen it yet. Signs & Symptoms Skip to the next section if you […]

The term predictive statistics is used to describe a focus on observables, and not on any invisible model-based parameters as is found in estimation and null hypothesis significance testing. It isn’t sticking, […]

From reader Ernst, this interesting probability/statistics question. First, NNT = number needed to treat, which is, stealing from this site to save time, “The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is the number […]

Intro I thought it would be fun to turn the daily coronavirus predictions I’ve been making into statistics class, complete with code. There are two parts to this: (1) the details of […]

What is the purpose of modeling? There can be only two. The first is to say what happened, to explain. But in order to do this one must first assume what one […]