Read Part I, Part II Ergodic in probability has a technical definition. Without going into mathematical details (which are fine except possibly when applied), a “sequence” is defined as a run of […]
Read Part I It is in one sense fortunate that the mathematical, or rather quantitative, roots of probability began with gambling. Routine gambles are easy to understand, and the calculations not only […]
Ye Olde Statistician points us to an essay (a book chapter?) by our old pal Nassim Nicholas Taleb called “The Logic of Risk Taking“. Let’s examine it. You, dear reader, do not […]
Many, many more details are available in Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics and at this page. Last time we learned that the way to do probability models was this: […]
Review! We began our first predictive analysis, and spent a lot of time with it. But we still haven’t got to the main question! And that is how it should be. Since […]
Regular readers know Uncertainty proposes we go back to the old way of examining and making conclusions about data, and eschew many innovations of the 20th Century. No p-values, no tests, no […]
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